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Collision gets <200k on prime time TNT. Not sure what ROH was getting years ago, but they didn’t even get 200k on YouTube for the major show they put up.
Here’s how we KNOW AEW doesn’t get 350k on HBO Max:
* Warner Bros Discovery streaming services have about 1/7 of the usage rate of Netflix. WBD announces the numbers for all its top shows. If shows underneath were doing numbers like 350k then it would be on par with Netflix.
* Zaslav has pointed out what the big drivers for HBO Max are — movies, classic shows, new drama like The Pitt and White Lotus. Sports is expressedly not.
* 25% of content consumed on HBO Max is also found on linear television. Given the numbers of The White Lotus, we know that is mostly that.
* Rampage wouldn’t have been cancelled if AEW content was valuable to streaming. They would have a PLE deal. There is no streaming-exclusive content for AEW.
* Other business metrics have seen a notable decline. This doesn’t compute with an increase in viewership. You can tell by looking at the product that the Max numbers are insignificant.
* HBO Max numbers are about to get included by Nielsen. TK immediately stepped back from reports suggesting high numbers and even Dave has shut up about them. A 5-10% increase has been estimated for most simulcast sports, but not guaranteed.
For funsies I made an estimate the other week. I was pretty close with my Netflix numbers. When you figure in what AEW does on basic cable, move that to a Netflix-size streaming platform, downsize that for Max, factor in that it’s still on linear television and the HBO deal is US domestic, not global…I got about 35k views. Multiply that by 1.3 and you get 45k viewers.
35k puts them in that 5-10% increase range. It also keeps them below NXT most weeks, which is why you don’t get gloating from that side. It also matches what we see — no significant effects on attendance, merchandise, popularity and the lack of any sort of exclusive streaming content.
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